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遼寧省精細化暴雨洪澇災害風(fēng)險評估與預評估
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遼寧省氣象局科研課題(202408)、遼寧省第一次自然災害綜合風(fēng)險普查、遼寧省氣象局人才計劃科技活動(dòng)資助項目(RC202302)和中國氣象局創(chuàng )新發(fā)展專(zhuān)項(CXFZ2021J047)資助


Risk Assessment and Pre-assessment of Refined Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in Liaoning Province
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    摘要:

    基于遼寧省61個(gè)國家氣象站1961—2020年和998個(gè)區域自動(dòng)氣象觀(guān)測站建站至2020年逐小時(shí)、逐日降水資料,分析了遼寧省暴雨洪澇災害主要致災因子,計算了暴雨洪澇孕災環(huán)境指標,完成了遼寧省暴雨洪澇災害危險性評估。結果表明:暴雨洪澇高危險性地區主要位于丹東;暴雨洪澇災害人口高風(fēng)險區主要位于沈陽(yáng)和大連市區;經(jīng)濟高風(fēng)險區主要位于大連和盤(pán)錦市區;水稻、玉米高風(fēng)險區主要位于錦州、盤(pán)錦和丹東。利用遼寧省無(wú)縫隙智能網(wǎng)格預報數據對2022年7月28—29日的暴雨過(guò)程災害風(fēng)險進(jìn)行了預評估,發(fā)現暴雨災害危險性高值區域主要分布在朝陽(yáng)、葫蘆島以及遼寧中部。暴雨災害可能造成的人口、經(jīng)濟高風(fēng)險區域主要位于遼寧西部和中部地區;暴雨災害可能造成的水稻和玉米高風(fēng)險區主要位于沈陽(yáng)、鐵嶺和朝陽(yáng)北部等地區。預計高風(fēng)險區主要影響人口約為449萬(wàn)人,經(jīng)濟損失約為1432萬(wàn)元,受影響的水稻面積約為1.028萬(wàn)公頃、玉米面積約為1.798萬(wàn)公頃。通過(guò)災后效果檢驗,發(fā)現預評估模型效果良好,可在實(shí)際的暴雨洪澇災害風(fēng)險評估業(yè)務(wù)中使用。

    Abstract:

    Based on the hourly and daily precipitation data of 61 national meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020 and 998 regional automatic meteorological observation stations from the beginning of the establishment to 2020 in Liaoning Province, we analyse the main causing factors of rainstorm and flood disaster, calculate the environmental indicators of rainstorm and flood disaster, and complete the hazard assessment of rainstorm and flood disaster in Liaoning Province. The results show that the high-risk area of rainstorms and floods is mainly located in Dandong. The high population risk areas of rainstorm and flood disaster are mainly located in Shenyang and Dalian urban areas. The high economic risk areas of rainstorm and flood disaster are mainly located in Dalian and Panjin urban areas. The high-risk areas of rice and maize are mainly located in Jinzhou, Panjin, and Dandong. The disaster risk of the rainstorm process on 28-29 July 2022 is pre-assessed using the intelligent grid forecast data of Liaoning Province. It is found that the high hazardous areas are mainly distributed in Chaoyang, Huludao, and the central part of Liaoning. The population and economic high-risk areas caused by the rainstorm disaster are mainly located in the western and central areas. The high-risk areas of rice and maize caused by rainstorm disaster are mainly located in Shenyang, Tieling, and the north of Chaoyang. It is estimated that the population affected in the high-risk area is about 4.49 million, the economic loss is about 14.32 million yuan. The affected rice area is about 10,280 hectares, the maize area is about 17,798 hectares. Through the post-disaster effect test, it is found that the pre-assessment model is effective and can be used in the actual rainstorm and flood disaster risk assessment business.

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敖雪,翟晴飛,趙春雨,周曉宇,崔妍,李經(jīng)緯,李明倩.遼寧省精細化暴雨洪澇災害風(fēng)險評估與預評估[J].氣象科技,2024,52(3):403~414

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-05
  • 定稿日期:2024-01-15
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  • 在線(xiàn)發(fā)布日期: 2024-06-25
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